Economic Calculation: Why "More Expensive" is Actually Cheaper?

Energy efficient home vs serial apartment

After several years of waiting and economic uncertainty, the Latvian real estate market in 2026 has reached a phase experts call a "thaw" and pragmatic maturity. Buyers no longer make emotional decisions; they carefully evaluate every square meter, and the main question is no longer just the purchase price, but the long-term maintenance costs.

While serial (Soviet-era) apartments still attract buyers with lower initial prices, they are increasingly viewed as an "anchor" whose value is likely to decline in the future. The main reason is unpredictable utility bills in buildings with low heat retention.

Expert Forecasts and Calculations

**Euribor Impact**: Financial analysts predict that in 2026, the 3-month Euribor will stabilize around 2.0–2.3%. This significantly improves mortgage accessibility.

**Monthly Payment**: For the average borrower, the monthly payment on a standard mortgage (approx. €100,000) has decreased by several hundred euros compared to the peak period.

**Operational Savings**: Buyers now realize that low maintenance costs in a new, energy-efficient project will fully compensate for the higher initial purchase price over the long term.

Stagnation of the Serial Apartment Market

In 2026, the serial apartment segment is experiencing a distinct price stratification. The highest demand is only for those secondary market apartments that have been renovated to provide improved energy efficiency.

Industry experts warn that serial housing without renovation prospects is losing its appeal, as buyers are now purchasing a living environment and predictable bills, not just square meters. Furthermore, people are increasingly moving away from the "one home for life" mindset, choosing to change residences several times to fit their current needs.

The Breakthrough of New Projects

Demand for new, high-quality housing in Riga (e.g., Teika, Purvciems, Āgenskalns) continues to exceed supply. Real estate prices in Latvia remain 30–40% lower than in Lithuania or Estonia, indicating a logical potential for future price convergence.

Why invest in a new project right now?

1. Price Stability: Waiting for a price drop is futile, as construction costs and labor shortages keep the cost of production high.

2. Limited Supply: The Riga market can only provide about 1,500 new apartments per year, even though the actual need is closer to 2,500–3,000.

3. Value Appreciation: Buying during the construction phase is often more cost-effective than purchasing a completed home.

Expert Conclusion for 2026

The 2026 real estate market is a year of stability and growth. "The waiting game is over," and buyers realize that hesitating may end up costing more. Investing in an energy-efficient home is currently the safest way to protect capital from inflation and ensure a predictable financial future.

Metaphor for understanding: Investing in an old serial apartment without renovation plans is like buying a cheap but old car with massive fuel consumption and constant repairs—the initial savings quickly disappear into monthly bills and maintenance costs.

Keywords:

energy efficiencyserial apartmentsinvestments 2026new builds Rigareal estate market

Energy Efficiency vs. Serial Apartments 2026